CPAC Day Three: Examining the Straw Poll Results

First thing in the morning, Sean Hannity spoke. He is definitely an important part of the conservative movement, providing basic conservative principles and talking points to the average conservative on the drive home, and doing it with a smile. He's a likable guy, and he's good to have on our side.

It's no wonder then, that Hannity was given a hero's welcome. His speech was like a 45-minute version of his radio show. He touched on Reagan, Democrat hypocrisy, the future of th moment, and spiced it up with some great Clinton jokes. No deep substance, but like one of the guys I attended with said, "He makes you feel good to be a conservative." That's Sean Hannity's role in the party.

You might think that the 50% fiscal conservative turnout tipped the poll to Romney. Romney won the ecomomic vote, but only by a 1% margin over Rudy. In fact, it was Mitt Romney's strong showing (either first or second) in every category that propelled him to the win. Surprisingly, Romney finished a strong second to Sam Brownback in the social conservative vote. Although Brownback won with 29% of the social con vote, Romney was second by a margin over 21%-13% over Newt Gingrich. In the national security vote, Rudy led at 25%, but Romney was second at 21%, better than John McCain's surprisingly low 18%.

To sum, Mitt won fiscal conservatives, Brownback won social conservatives, and Rudy won security conservatives. Romney was the only candidate to draw over 20% from all groups, and finish first or second in all groups. Brownback's total was depressed by low finishes among security and economic conservatives, while Rudy was hamstrung by his 8% finish among social conservatives.

This finish (obviously sans a meaningful McCain presence) confirms what many people have been saying about the race. Each candidate has noticeable strengths and weaknesses. But I would argue that Mitt Romney, despite his low national name ID, does not have a section of the GOP primary electorate that simply will not vote for him. He appeals to social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and national security conservatives. The only other candidate that can say that is John McCain. That's why I predict that the race will come down to Romney and McCain, with experience, dynamism and fundraising being possible determing factors, depending on how these two candidates define themselves, and how long it takes the other guys to drop out of the race.

The only way this doesn't happen is if social conservatives settle early on McCain, if only to deny Rudy the nomination. That would suck the air out of Romney's campaign. I think the more likely thing is that as primary voters learn more about Rudy's record and positions, they will leave Rudy and go (roughly in equal numbers) to McCain or Romney. As social conservatives are already leaving guys like Mike Huckabee (too bad) and maybe Brownback in favor of guys who can win, the race will slowly come down to Romney and McCain.

Strategy-wise, I think Mitt Romney needs to stay optimistic and presidential. Brownback wants to pull him down into a social conservative deathmatch, but Romney must resist getting in a fight with a second tier candidate. If he hits anyone, it will be McCain, because Romney wins a matchup with Giuliani hands down, while with McCain it's no sure thing.

McCain needs to start hitting Rudy, in order to bring back many of the conservatives who are leaning towards Rudy because, in large part, they think he can win. McCain needs to re-emphasize the fact that he can win in the general, thus drawing back moderates who are currently infatuated with the new guy, Rudy Giuliani. If McCain and Romney are the final two, that matchup is more favorable to McCain, where a McCain-Rudy matchup, I think, goes to Rudy.