CPAC Day Two: The Auditions

It was audition day today at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, DC. Every Republican candidate for president (except McCain) sought to establish their conservative bona-fides in front of a packed crowd all day long.

We showed up early on purpose; 7:45 for an 8:30 conference, and little did we know how good a decision that turned out to be. Duncan Hunter opened the politicking at 8:30, and Mitt Romney ended it at 4:00. By the time Ann Coulter finished stepping way over the line it was almost 5:00. Because of the massive crowds, we were told that if we left the auditorium, we wouldn't get back in, so we stayed in the main hall the whole 7+ hours!

Rudy Giuliani entered the room a rock star, and left to the resounding din of...snores? That's right, Rudy Giuliani was a complete and utter disappointment. I don't know if I could ever support the guy, but I was at least excited to see what all the fuss was about. Turns out, whatever is in the water that turns staunch social conservatives into quivering messes, chanting "Rudy, Rudy" as the Mayor sleepwalks through another speech missed our table. I at least expected some passion, some courage, some of that famous pugnacity. Maybe I caught Rudy on a bad day, but there really wasn't much to like in his speech.

It seemed to me that the crowd of rock-ribbed conservatives was grasping for some reason to support Rudy. Clearly, he is still exceptionally popular among patriotic Americans of all political stripes, but I think his warm reception won't necessarily translate to votes. People like Rudy, respect Rudy, even love Rudy, but I really don't know if they want him as president.

Rudy's speech was disjointed and ill-prepared. He spoke without notes, which can be impressive, but only if you have a plan. Rudy didn't have a plan. He looked like he was just making an appearance. I just don't see this guy competing. Sorry.

In all fairness, Rudy explained the ongoing war on terror in clear terms, this was his only real moment of strength. He re-framed the war effort in concise terms: this is not our war on terror, it is terror's war on us. This formulation was new, fresh, and more what I expected from Giuliani after all the hype.

Rudy is going to have "issues," as he said, with the base, and unless his game picks up dramatically, most every audience he encounters will leave like we did: disappointed and sleepy-eyed, wondering what went wrong.

Tom Tancredo's main problem is that for every reasonable thing he says, he feels the need to counter-balance it with something a little bit crazy. It doesn't help his case as a legitimate presidential contender that the first thing he did today was pull out a cigar and cackle about how he likes cigars. Maybe it's a softening thing, or an identify with the foibles of the common man-on-the-street, but either way, it was weird.

I guess not everyone feels like me, Tancredo is quite a hero on the right-er side of the Republican party, and he really had a pretty strong showing of student volunteers. They made a lot of noise, and stayed pretty reasonable throughout the course of the afternoon.

Tancredo is running as an "unapologetic conservative," which apparently is the only kind of hyphenated conservative he will allow (does this rule me out as a Christian-conservative?). He did take a pretty pointed dig at Romney, saying conversions should happen on the road to Damascus, not the road to Des Moines. It did seem like Tancredo is running as a thorn in the side candidate, someone who will try to force the other big candidates to embrace full-throated and vocal conservatism. So his candidacy may yet do good things. If he can make the Big 3 tack right, he may serve an important purpose.

Duncan Hunter gave a strong defense of conservative foreign policy that had a ton of heads nodding. Clearly, Hunter is running a heavily issue-based campaign, and this is something to be respected. Hunter knows that his only chance is for the other candidates to in some way betray the conservative banner (a possibility). If this happens, Hunter has the conservative credentials and the experience and dignity to be able to pick up the standard and carry it forward.

If we could just install a president, without the drama of the election season, Hunter would be one of the top contenders. But elections don't work that way. Hunter won't be able to raise the money necessary to stay competitive in an increasingly top-heavy field.

Duncan Hunter is a great congressman, and come November of 2008, I would love to once again hear the words "Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, Duncan Hunter."

Sam Brownback has an extremely strong presence at CPAC, and is a wonderful defender of the culture of life. His speech was never stronger than when he was speaking his heart on the abortion issue. Brownback is going to be a voice of "family conservatism" for a long time.

Issue-wise, Brownback has moved hard towards support for the surge. I think the message got to him loud and clear that a Republican undermining the president in a time of war is a big no-no. He spoke just as strongly as any of the other candidates on fighting the war on terror, a big change from when he struggled with his vote on the non-binding resolution. Good to see he is seeing the light there.

Brownback also has revised the way he talks about illegal immigration. I think he recognizes the incongruity of running as the conservative alternative while carrying a less than stellar immigration stand.

I chose this (big) picture of Governor Mitt Romney and his wife for a reason. Ann Romney could be the key to the Republican nomination for Romney. She is classy, has a compelling story, and the Romneys clearly have a strong and lasting marriage.

While Romney is positioning himself to be the traditionalist conservative in the race, his marriage and family become more and more important when they are compared to Giuliani's family history. Plus, she softens his image and completes the TV perfect image of Romney.

Put it this way: Romney is the most presidential looking and sounding presidential candidate I have ever seen. He is smooth, compelling, passionate in all the right places, and thoroughly inspiring as a public speaker. The crowd at CPAC was initially very lukewarm towards Romney, a clear contrast from its response towards Giuliani. But as Romney made his speech and people started moving. The longer he spoke, the more people liked what he was saying. I think he won over a lot of votes today.

Now, obviously this isn't an endorsement, it's just a statement of fact. Mitt Romney will be very hard to beat. He will be in the race financially. He has the fundraising connections, ability and innovation to stay competitive financially. If he is able to weather the current attacks he's facing, he will be a force to be reckoned with. And when he steps on the debate stage, he will be compelling. I attended a reception for him after he spoke, and there was some serious excitement in that room. That's all for now.

Unquestionably, the surprise of the day was the stirring speech by small-state longshot Mike Huckabee. Huckabee's speech was the strongest conservative message of the event thus far. He was alternately funny and bold, and didn't namecheck Reagan every three words, a quality which I am coming to appreciate more and more (seriously, I love Reagan as much as the next guy, but there are tons of conservatives to quote! Branch out!).

Huckabee stole Brownback's pro-life thunder, pledging to appoint only pro-life justices to the federal bench. Maybe that'll pop up in attack ads, but I'm beyond caring. If only the leaders in the race were this bold on the life issue. People don't seem to understand how much of a winner this issue is.

We need a candidate who can effectively get out the conservative message, and pay for the chance to spread it. Huckabee can defend conservatism brilliantly. He just needs the money. Even if you aren't going to vote for him, consider giving Huckabee some money, if just to keep his voice in the race as long as possible. It can only make the Big 3 better.

I'll have many anecdotes and observations from CPAC over the next week. Tomorrow the conference concludes with addresses by Sean Hannity and Newt Gingrich, among others. More later.