Sunday, May 20, 2007 - 6:04pm
His answer on evolution/belief in God was spine-tinglingly good. Quoting Martin Luther was masterful.
This guy needs to be in the race, and it's a shame that he isn't gaining much traction. I could blame any number of factors; a crowded field, an emphasis on early fundraising, a stronger than expected top-tier of candidates, the list goes on.
Maybe he's just running for VP at this point, I don't know. But with Fred Thompson's much-hyped entry into the race, there just isn't much room for anyone else. And that's a shame.
At some level, he needs to break into the top-tier to be taken seriously. But in this celebrity-focused political world, a little known governor of Arkansas without a fundraising machine and institutional support just doesn't warrant the breathless media coverage that candidates like Giuliani, McCain, Thompson and Romney command. Then when you factor in the big names on the Democratic side like Clinton and Obama, the oxygen is limited. There's only so much political oxygen in the race, and with Gore and Gingrich biding their time on the sidelines, the situation is not going to get any better.
So help him out.
All right, state of the race:
Dems first.
I think conservatives are approaching the Democratic primary the wrong way. I see constant, vitriolic attacks on Hillary Clinton that have far more to do with her controversial past than they do with her stands on issues.
There are two problems with this: First, the anger and irrationality reminds me way too much of the anti-Bush left. It's not substantive, logical, or palatable to the casual voter. It strengthens her hand. Now, there are legitimate issues from her past that need to be addressed.
But, and this is my second point, the time has not come to use Hillary's past against her. It will be extremely useful in a general election, when people are paying attention, but if we use all our ammunition now, A) it doesn't hurt her in the primary, Dems don't care, and B), it blunts the impact of the attacks in the general. Political bombs, like their military counterparts, only have so much range, and it doesn't help to use our bombs while the enemy isn't yet in range.
If people think Hillary needs to be knocked down in the primary, because they are afraid she is the most electable of the Dem candidates, I disagree. I just don't think Hillary can win a general election. In fact, I think a good Republican nominee who runs a good campaign on the issues can beat any of the Democrat frontrunners.
I don't buy the pessimism.
On the Republican side, I think Fred Thompson's entry into the race throws the whole thing into a state of flux. If he didn't get in, I think we would have seen Mitt Romney's momentum continue to grow. He already leads New Hampshire and Iowa in some polls, and is entering double digits in South Carolina. He is also a good enough fundraiser that he will continue to gain in name ID and be able to drive his message well.
He also had the momentum, which is the most underrated factor in these early polls. At this stage I'd rather be down ten points and gaining two a month than be up ten and slipping two a month.
But how much of Romney's momentum is a factor of having the "conservative alternative" label to himself against McCain (who is hurting himself badly with the immigration issue) and Rudy, who I maintain cannot win a Republican primary?
That's the question that Fred Thompson's entry into the race will answer.
Thompson is an intriguing candidate, I'll admit. But can he last? Everyone looks different once the freshness wears off (as Barack Obama is finding out, somehwat painfully). So can Thompson continue to look new and fresh compared to McCain and Romney, or does he shrink like Obama under the bright lights?
I will say this: Thompson's political profile is very similar to Obama's. He is the new thing, the exciting thing, the thrilling newcomer with an aura of celebrity about him, like Obama was. But some of Obama's flaws also apply to him: a lack of experience and accomplishment, a tendency to ramble and underwhelm live audiences, and unreasonably high expectations.
I'd tend to think that Thompson will more resemble Obama than he wants to. I still think this is a Romney/Rudy/McCain race. McCain has faded because of his immigration stance, but I do think he will rebound a little. Can he regain the frontrunner status? I don't know. I think it comes down to either Romney/Rudy or Romney/ McCain, with Huckabee (hopefully) making a run into top-tier position.
